
US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said China will meet Phase One purchase goals and that buying will ramp up in spring. USDA estimates US agricultural sales to China at $14 billion this fiscal year, about one third of the deal's target.
The USDA raised its China export forecast by $3 billion.
Expected Chinese purchases of US soybeans and corn would absorb export supply and support US futures. The gap between USDA estimates and the deal's target leaves the size of that demand uncertain.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.