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Russia and Saudi Arabia failed to agree on OPEC+ production quotas, causing an oil price collapse. The IEA estimates 2020 will see the first oil demand contraction since the Great Recession, and LNG markets face a similar demand shock and oversupply.
A sharp fall in crude and gas prices lowers energy costs for feed production and transport, and it weakens biofuel economics that support vegetable oil and corn demand.
gjia.georgetown.eduaig24Mar 27, 2020After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
