
The US relief package reportedly includes about $24 billion for farmers, including $14 billion to replenish the Commodity Credit Corporation and a $9.5 billion emergency fund for producers including dairy farmers. The Mexican peso fell from about 18.5 to near 23.5 per dollar, making US exports to Mexico more expensive.
The peso slump hurts demand from Mexico, the largest US dairy export market, while government payments support farm income without lifting prices directly.
After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.