
The March MARS report says almost all of Europe had one of its warmest winters since 1979, with temperatures 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above average. Spain, Greece and Italy suffered rainfall deficits of 40% to 80%, while France, the Benelux and parts of Germany had surplus rain.
The EU winter grain yield forecast is 5.75 t/ha, 3.2% above the five-year average.
A healthy EU winter grain yield outlook is bearish for wheat and barley prices and eases import demand for feed grains. Dry conditions in southern wheat areas are a localized risk that could limit upside.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.