◂ Event Timeline

Apr 30, 2020MACROEurope

PRESS CONFERENCE

ECB President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos held a press conference after the April 30 Governing Council meeting. ECB staff scenarios put euro area GDP falling between 5% and 12% in 2020, and inflation fell due to lower oil prices.

WHY IT MATTERS

A deeper euro area contraction and lower energy prices weigh on demand for feed and fuel-linked commodities. Weaker euro-area demand is mildly bearish for European feed and biofuel demand.

AFFECTSEuro (USD per EUR)◆Crude Oil (Brent)▼

SOURCE
ecb.europa.euEuropean Central BankApr 30, 2020

Price reaction & history

Euro (USD per EUR)◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.7%5d -0.4%20d +2.0%

After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

Dec 16, 2021PRESS CONFERENCE+0.6%
Jul 20, 2017PRESS CONFERENCE+1.0%
Apr 27, 2017PRESS CONFERENCE+0.4%
Jun 10, 2021Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)-0.5%
Jun 6, 2019Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)+0.6%

Crude Oil (Brent)▼bearishSO FAR1d +6.6%5d +33.7%20d +72.6%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

Feb 25, 2020COVID-19 Pressures Mexican Peso-7.6%
Apr 25, 2022Fed’s hawkish stance keeps commodity markets under pressure+2.8%
Jul 19, 2024Commodity prices falling for very different reasons - PricePedia-3.7%
Feb 11, 2022The Commodities Feed: US Fed pressure weighs on the commodities complex | snaps | ING THINK+0.3%
Jun 17, 2018The Fed Is Driving Down Oil Prices | OilPrice.com+2.6%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Euro (USD per EUR) EURUSD · GP ▸

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Crude Oil (Brent) BRENT · GP ▸

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