
A Progressive Cattle analysis estimates the total actual and future economic impact of COVID-19 on the US beef industry at more than $14.6 billion. It cites the CARES Act, which included over $9 billion in direct livestock assistance, and notes that East Asian demand for beef exports was an early concern.
A large estimated loss across beef production sectors signals sustained weaker demand and pressure on cattle prices, partly offset by government aid.
After 37 past bearish macro events, Live Cattle moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.4%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 27 past bearish macro events, Feeder Cattle moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.4%), and 0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.