
Cattle, dairy and hog farmers will receive $9.5 billion of the new aid package, with row crops getting $3.9 billion, specialty crops $2.1 billion and other crops $500 million. Producers are compensated for 85% of losses from January 1 through April 15 and 30% of expected losses for the following two quarters, capped at $125,000 per commodity.
Aid weighted toward livestock and dairy can sustain herd and milking levels longer, limiting supply cuts that would otherwise support prices later.
After 102 past neutral policy events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.2%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 26 past neutral policy events, HOGS moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.6% to +1.7%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 93 past neutral policy events, MILK moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.6%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.