
Congress passed and President Trump signed a new farm bill that overhauls dairy risk management programs with more affordable, accessible insurance products. The bill changes the Class I fluid milk price formula to the average of Class III and IV plus 74 cents, and extends the Dairy Forward Pricing Program through 2023.
A 2019 all-milk price forecast of $16.70 to $17.60 per cwt accompanies the article.
The new margin protection tools may encourage producers to stay in production during low milk prices, supporting milk supply over time. The Class I formula change is described as revenue-neutral, so its direct price effect on milk is limited.
After 93 past neutral policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.6%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.