Chinese prilled urea sellers are holding offers in the mid-$240s/t fob, supported by strong sales to India, even as competing origins such as Indonesia and the Middle East fell into the $230s/t. China's domestic spring season is ending and exporters are expected to shift toward export markets from May.
Firm Chinese urea offers and India's dominance of export demand keep nitrogen fertilizer costs elevated for Asian producers, with export supply rising from May.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.