India's fertilizer output fell to an 18-month low in April as coronavirus lockdowns shut plants and cut demand. DAP production dropped about 38% year on year to just over 260 KT, while NPK and SSP output also fell.
Imports stayed strong, keeping inventories and prices in check.
Lower domestic DAP output is supportive for prices, but strong imports and firm kharif-season demand limit the upside. Sales volumes are expected to rise as plants restart.
After 40 past logistics events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.