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A record volume of diesel, over 3 million tonnes, is set to reach Europe from Asia and the Middle East in May as lockdowns left refiners with excess supply. Refining margins have fallen to an 11-year low below $5 a barrel.
Record diesel imports into Europe and collapsing refinery margins point to continued downward pressure on diesel prices and possible refinery run cuts.
After 18 past bearish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.5% to +3.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.