Diesel cracks ended the week lower as the end of a seven-day strike at TotalEnergies' Donges refinery reduced French disruption. Only one refinery was shut by Friday, though strikes continue at two Total sites until at least Oct.
27, and a surprise US distillate stockbuild added pressure.
Easing French refinery disruption reduces the premium for prompt European diesel, lowering diesel margins and prices. Distillate stocks remain about 30% below pre-Covid averages, which limits how far prices can fall.
After 18 past bearish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.5% to +3.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.