
US lean hog futures dropped by the daily limit on June 26 after the USDA report showed a record-large June 1 hog supply, up 5.2% year on year against an expected 3.7%. Economic worries tied to rising COVID-19 cases also weighed on the market, and July, August and October contracts hit lows.
A heavier-than-expected supply of market-ready hogs lowers near-term hog prices and signals softer demand for feed going into the summer.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.