USDA says its Food Purchase and Distribution Program has bought more than $2.2 billion of meat, produce, specialty crops and dairy in fiscal 2019 and 2020 as trade mitigation. It expects to reach its roughly $1.4 billion fiscal-year goal by September 30.
Government food purchases add modest demand for meat and dairy products but are small relative to feed grain and meal flows, so the effect on feed prices is limited.
After 78 past bullish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 85 past bullish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +4.5%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 41 past bullish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +8.1%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.