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A CSIS commentary says OPEC and OPEC+ agreed at a virtual meeting to extend current cuts through July, with a 9.6 million b/d cut for June and July that falls to 7.7 million b/d for the rest of 2020. The cut is the largest in OPEC history, and WTI has nearly doubled since late April to near $40 a barrel.
The planned step-down in cuts after July signals gradually rising supply, which limits crude upside over the longer term. Producers and feed buyers will watch for demand-led backwardation as the market tightens.
csis.orgBen Cahill, Frank A. VerrastroJun 12, 2020After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
