
The countervailing duty investigation into phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia followed a June 26 petition. After the launch, DAP at New Orleans rose to an FOB offer of $280 per short ton, a two-month high.
The price reaction shows the market pricing in tariff risk on Moroccan and Russian DAP, which tightens US phosphate supply and supports prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.