
The US Commerce Department opened an investigation on July 17, 2020 into whether phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia receive unfair subsidies. Last year imports from Morocco were valued at about $729 million and from Russia at about $299 million.
A countervailing duty would raise landed costs of DAP and MAP into the US, supporting domestic phosphate prices and reducing import supply for feed-related phosphate users.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.