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The US dollar has peaked and is likely to decline over the next six to 12 months as safe-haven demand fades. Gold has broken out to a record high, and the Australian dollar has risen about 30% from its March low, now above US$0.70.
The note links these moves to a weaker dollar and higher commodity prices.
A weaker dollar tends to support dollar-priced commodities and can make US feed ingredients cheaper for non-US buyers. The analysis is investment-focused and carries limited direct price signal for feed ingredients.
investblue.com.auJul 29, 2020After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
