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Rabobank's global poultry analysis, presented at an International Poultry Council webinar, says COVID-19, African swine fever and avian influenza will shock poultry supply, demand and trade in 2020 and 2021. US broiler processing capacity fell about 10% over recent months but is starting to recover, with turkey hit harder.
Uncertain poultry trade flows and temporary capacity losses reduce near-term demand for feed grains and meals used in poultry diets. Disease-driven supply shocks could later tighten local poultry supply and lift trade demand.
zootecnicainternational.comRedazioneJul 27, 2020Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 145 past neutral disease events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
