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Bloomberg reports U.S. pork production is poised for an all-time high in 2018 and rising again in 2019, while tariffs from China and Mexico threaten export demand. Hog futures are trading near their lowest seasonal levels since 2002.
Excess domestic pork supply with weakened export outlets is bearish for hog prices and lowers the cost of pork-based feed inputs such as meat and bone meal.
nationalhogfarmer.comBloombergJul 17, 2018After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Bloomberg report of record pork production and tariff threats to exports, with hogs near seasonal lows, is a bearish supply/demand narrative hitting the same day.
