The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2019 export yearbook shows U.S. agricultural exports to China rose to $13.8 billion in 2019, with soybeans up $4.9 billion. China's Phase One commitments are valued at roughly $80 billion over two years, and COVID-19 disruptions still weigh on logistics.
Strong Chinese purchases under Phase One support U.S. soybean and pork demand. Pandemic-related port and logistics constraints could slow shipments and limit the price benefit.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.