
Indonesia is allocating $195 million from its state palm oil fund to subsidize palm oil biodiesel producers, justifying it as support for economic recovery from the pandemic slump. Campaigners say the fund is meant to help smallholder farmers, and note that smallholders are receiving far lower fresh fruit bunch prices since COVID-19 restrictions.
Subsidizing biodiesel production supports domestic CPO demand and can lift palm oil prices, while the smallholder price slump reflects weak local demand and logistics disruption. Net effect is supportive for palm oil and vegetable oil complex prices.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.