Why the loonie's bond with oil remains strong

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• May 15, 2017Why the loonie’s lows are behind us - The Globe and Mail+5.2%
• Jan 2, 2018Loonie starts the year on a tear, cracking 80 cents with a big boost from oil | Financial Post+2.1%
• Oct 1, 2026Rand weakens to three month low as stronger dollar and oil price weigh on South Africa-2.3%
• Nov 15, 2017The loonie is refusing to take its cue from oil - The Globe and Mail+2.1%
• Apr 28, 2026What’s happening with the rand?+10.1%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jun 20, 2019Why investors should prepare for a stronger loonie - The Globe and Mail-1.1%
• Jul 21, 2017BOT:Stronger Thai baht is in line with regional currencies-0.0%
• Sep 17, 2017Strong outlook with low inflation spurs risk-taking+0.4%
• Jan 31, 2026Loonie on a wild ride as global investors reassess the greenback - The Globe and Mail+0.3%
• Sep 9, 2020Forget oil – this is the commodity that will lead the loonie’s next moves - The Globe and Mail-0.7%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.