
USDA data showed the March 2018 national average dairy margin fell to $6.77 per cwt, the lowest since June 2016, as feed costs outpaced milk prices. The March U.S. average milk price was $15.60 per cwt.
Changes in the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 now calculate MPP-Dairy margins monthly and lower Tier I premiums, with enrollment open until June 1.
A weaker margin raises the chance of MPP-Dairy indemnity payments, which can support farm milk output and cushion producers against low prices.
After 93 past neutral policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.6%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.