
Canadian dairy outlook from FCC forecasts little margin improvement in 2023 after the P5 cancelled fall incentive days due to strong production, higher imports and slowing demand. The Canadian Dairy Commission's cost study suggests a 1.8% farmgate price increase from February 2024, which is subject to an exceptional circumstance process.
Weak domestic demand and higher imports keep Canadian milk prices flat, limiting dairy farmers' capacity to buy feed; a possible farmgate increase would modestly support milk values.
After 93 past neutral policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.6%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.