The USDA September Hogs and Pigs report showed a hog inventory just over 79 million, up 1% from a year ago and down 1% from June. The breeding herd fell 1.5% while market hogs rose 1%.
Analysts estimate 1.5 million hogs are backed up in the system due to COVID-19 plant slowdowns.
Strong export demand is expected to offset ample supply, supporting hog prices in the fourth quarter despite the large herd and processing backlog.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.