
Rabobank's analysis of the March USDA Hogs and Pigs report shows the breeding herd down 2.1% year on year, while productivity rose 4.6%. Hog prices are up 21% year on year, and the pork cutout exceeded $100 per hundredweight, up 30%, helped by strong exports to Mexico, South Korea, Colombia and Australia.
Limited supply growth and strong export demand are supporting hog and pork prices and restoring producer margins, which may keep hog demand for feed firm through Q3.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.