
USDA ERS says pork processors will likely pay higher hog prices through year-end because of lower slaughter-ready supplies, while consumers resist higher pork prices. Processor spreads averaged about $33 per hog through week 43, nearly 20% below 2021, and fourth-quarter prices for 51-52% hogs are expected near $64/cwt.
Lower hog supply and squeezed processor spreads point to firm live hog prices into the fourth quarter, with packers likely reducing weekly slaughter.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.