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ABARES raised its national wheat forecast by 2.3 million tonnes to 28.9 million tonnes, the largest since 2016-17. The increase is driven mainly by a 2 million tonne lift in NSW wheat prospects.
A third-largest-on-record Australian wheat crop expands export availability and adds downward pressure on wheat prices in export markets.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.