
Australian feeder cattle prices have risen more than 5% since June, with Darwin steers reaching A$3.55/kg. Under the Indonesia-Australia trade agreement, in-quota cattle enter Indonesia with a 5% import tax exemption, but Rabobank says Indonesian feedlotters are already operating at a loss.
Live export volumes to Indonesia have fallen.
Rising Australian cattle costs and weak Indonesian margins could cut live export demand, which would reduce Australian cattle exports and put pressure on feeder prices.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.