
Phosphate fertilizer prices such as DAP rose about a third in the last quarter after the U.S. launched an investigation into alleged subsidized imports from Russia and Morocco. Those two largest suppliers sharply slowed shipments into the U.S. market, tightening domestic supply.
Reduced phosphate imports leave U.S. buyers facing higher DAP costs and concentrate supply with Mosaic, which supports elevated input costs for crop producers into the next season.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.