Barge freight rates fell sharply across the river system, with the St. Louis rate down 19% in the latest week. Soybean basis at river terminals improved by about 11 cents, while corn basis improved only about a cent as weak export demand limited its response.
Cheaper barge transport lifts the bids terminals can pay farmers, which supports soybean basis and lowers the cost of moving grain to the Gulf. Weak corn export demand is keeping corn basis from responding to the lower freight.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.