Ukrainian purchase prices for sunflower and soybeans rose during the week, with sunflower up 400-600 UAH/t to 15,400-15,800 UAH/t. Harvest data point to a sunflower crop of no more than 13-13.5 million tons and soybeans of 2.6-2.8 million tons.
Oil World cut its 2020/21 world sunflower production forecast to 50.9 million tons.
A smaller Ukrainian and world sunflower crop reduces meal and oil supply, supporting sunflower and soy-based feed ingredient prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.