
An analysis from Brownfield reports that US net farm income fell 33% from its peak to 2018-2019 levels, with the steepest declines in Midwest and Great Plains states. Direct payments were about 22% of net farm income in 2018 and 2019.
Weaker farm incomes and heavy reliance on government payments can affect input purchasing and planting decisions, a modest factor for feed grain demand.
After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.