
Ohio State and University of Missouri economists analyzed how trade-war tariffs, COVID-19 and high corn and soybean prices affected U.S. beef, milk and pork output. Production has risen every year since 2018 and is expected to keep climbing into 2022.
Ad hoc aid likely offset lower margins from 2019 to early 2021, but feed costs have limited profits.
Continued livestock expansion sustains feed demand, while high feed costs squeeze livestock margins. Net benefits of aid are judged to favor feed grain and oilseed producers.
After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.