
Western Canadian farmers finished harvest early in 2020 after a warm, dry autumn. Statistics Canada forecasts wheat output up about 6% to roughly 34 million tonnes and canola just under the five-year average at 19 million tonnes.
A larger Canadian wheat crop and early harvest add supply that may cap wheat prices, though farmers are holding for better prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.