
Victorian farmers made substantial harvest progress after hot, dry weather in the week to December 18. GrainCorp received 813,500 tonnes in its Victorian network, its largest delivery week of the season, and yields in Wimmera and Central Victoria are better than expected.
Better-than-expected Victorian yields could cap the Australian supply shortfall, limiting upside for wheat and barley prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.