London Nov-20 wheat futures closed at £183.70/t, up £3.50, after USDA data showed US maize stocks on September 1 at 1.995 billion bushels, 11% below pre-report estimates and the smallest in four years. The AHDB outlook puts global wheat production at 763.4 Mt, about 1.2 Mt above last season, with global wheat ending stocks forecast at 294.0 Mt.
Tighter US corn stocks support feed grain prices, while a larger global wheat crop limits upside in wheat.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.