The UAE, Kuwait and Iraq are debating whether to roll over oil supply cuts into 2021 because they struggle to meet their agreed reductions. Saudi Arabia and Russia favor keeping cuts of about 7.7 million bpd.
Possible friction within OPEC+ and a review of output targets could lift supply in 2021, a bearish factor for crude against weak demand.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.