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Falling water levels on the Mississippi have exposed sandbars and led barge operators to cut drafts, with Ceres Barge Line trimming loads to 10 feet 6 inches. Shippers now need 18 barges instead of 17 for the same grain volume out of St. Louis.
St. Louis river levels are forecast to fall toward 1 foot by mid-October.
Draft restrictions raise the cost of moving grain south from St. Louis, which widens basis discounts and reduces farm-gate prices. Freight rates are likely to rise while water stays low.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
