
Sime Darby Oils said the crude palm oil rally above RM3,000 a tonne could last through year-end, but its continuation into Q1 2021 depends on whether Malaysia extends its export duty waiver, which runs July 1 to December 31, 2020. Low inventories and strong exports currently support prices.
Removal of Malaysia's export duty exemption would raise export costs and could tighten supply, so the policy decision is a key swing factor for palm oil prices into 2021.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.