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Black Sea wheat yields were about 30% below the prior year at the start of the 2020 harvest after a dry spring. Ukrainian yields recovered toward last year's levels, but Russian yields stayed historically low.
Consensus now puts Russia's crop at 82-84 MMT, and USDA raised its forecast by 5 MMT to 83 MMT.
A larger-than-feared Russian crop adds export supply and weighs on wheat prices, after the early harvest scare had lifted futures.
blog.sizov.reportAndrey SizovOct 19, 2020After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
