
A Stanford-led study published in Nature Food finds U.S. corn yields have risen but have become more sensitive to drought, especially in soils with lower moisture-holding capacity. The researchers argue that technology gains are offset by growing losses in bad years.
Growing drought sensitivity raises the risk premium for future crops, which can support corn prices during dry seasons, though the study has no immediate supply effect.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.