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ING's LATAM FX outlook turns bullish on regional currencies into year-end, citing a weaker US dollar and better commodity prices. It sees the most appreciation potential for the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso in 2021.
ING also flags fiscal weakness and political risk in Brazil, Chile and Peru.
A weaker dollar and firmer Latin American currencies would make South American exports cheaper in dollar terms and could support soy and corn export pricing. The outlook is a forecast rather than a new shock.
think.ing.comGustavo Rangel Chief Economist, LATAMDec 4, 2020After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
