
Ukrainian sunflower oil producer Kernel described its 2021 outlook as uninspiring despite a strong first quarter, with EBITDA tripling to $290M. The company blamed drought that damaged the Black Sea sunflower seed crop and expects a tight market by the end of the current marketing year.
Drought-reduced Black Sea sunflower supply is likely to keep seed and oil prices firm into 2021, raising costs for sunflower meal and oil buyers. Kernel's processing target is also at risk.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.