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USDA's ERS forecasts 2020 US net farm income rising to $119.6 billion from $83.6 billion in 2019, but the gain came from a $24.0 billion rise in government payments rather than the market. Disaster and pandemic assistance rose by $31.0 billion, while Market Facilitation Program payments fell.
Income gains driven by government aid rather than market prices suggest weak underlying commodity returns, which may limit farmer expansion and feed-grain demand growth.
agpolicy.orgDec 2, 2020After 3,207 past report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, SOY moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
