A World Perspectives report says the EPA is now expected to issue a proposed 2021 RVO rule this month, finalized in June, rather than punting it to the Biden administration. The 2021 volumes would be only partially retroactive.
Biofuel volume requirements set soybean oil demand for biodiesel and renewable diesel. A proposed rule with firm volumes would support soyoil prices, while the partial retroactivity limits the uncertainty.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.