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ABARES raised its 2020/21 Australian wheat production forecast to 31.17 million tons from 28.91 million. Russia may also raise its duty-free wheat export quota from 15 million to 17.5 million tons.
A larger Australian crop and a bigger Russian duty-free quota both add exportable wheat supply, which weighs on global wheat prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.