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ING says ECB officials argue markets underestimate the odds of rate cuts, but the verbal pressure is unlikely to do much lasting damage to the euro. The bank notes markets already price about a 70% probability of a 10 basis point cut within a year.
ING also expects a cautious Fed to keep dollar prospects bearish over the medium term.
Limited verbal intervention means the euro-dollar rate is unlikely to move sharply, so dollar-priced commodity prices are not expected to shift much from this factor alone.
think.ing.comJan 28, 2021After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
