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Premia Partners argues that US inflation expectations are rising and depressing the dollar, while the 10-year Treasury yield has also climbed rapidly. The firm says the Fed's zero-rate policy and generous unemployment benefits are fuelling strong equity markets.
It warns that higher yields could threaten the equity rally.
Rising inflation expectations tend to support real-asset and commodity prices, but a weaker dollar and higher yields can offset this, leaving feed price direction mixed.
premia-partners.comJan 20, 2021After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
